Author: Samikchhya Gurung
The Lower Karnali Watershed region is currently defined by a striking sociological paradox: While home to one of Nepal’s mightiest and most ecologically diverse river systems, its frontline communities are increasingly plagued by acute water scarcity and intensifying resource friction. To the fields and villages of Geruwa Rural Municipality and Madhuwan Municipality in Bardiya, climate change is a distant, abstract threat debated in the global policy arenas. And yet it acts as an active, daily disruptor to the local peace, household survivability, and community stability in these areas. (Dixit et al., 2019)
This environmental precarity is unfolding against a complex political backdrop. While Nepal’s historic transition to a federal structure aims to decentralize power and bring governance closer to marginalized populations, escalating climate hazards are rapidly outpacing the administrative capacities of local authorities, exposing critical gaps in the implementation of localized adaptation strategies (Ministry of Forests and Environment [MoFE], 2019). The resulting disconnect has created an acute localized crisis in the Western Terai sub-basins, such as the Lower Karnali, where environmental degradation and water scarcity are actively translating into localized conflicts over agricultural survival, shared resource access, and volatile human-wildlife boundaries (Dixit et al., 2019; MoFE, 2019).”
The Disappearing Flow: Agricultural Crises and Shared Scarcity
The shift away from predictable seasonal patterns toward highly erratic weather regimes has drastically altered the agricultural landscape of Bardiya. Local empirical data, from a study I conducted in 2024, revealed a troubling reality (Gurung, 2024). The study, conducted in October 2024 and conducted across two wards in Geruwa Rural Municipality and Madhuwan Municipality ( N = 120 ) with stratified random sampling, showed 37% of surveyed households reported facing severe agricultural irrigation crises which included the total loss of seasonal canal access or multi-week delays in crop planting due to dried water sources. Delayed monsoons, unpredictable rainfall intensity, and the rapid drying up of traditional communal water bodies are forcing farming communities into an intense, zero-sum competition for the dwindling resource (Gurung, 2024). For a population heavily reliant on subsistence and small-scale agriculture, the absence of water strikes at the base of economic survival.
Under Nepal’s federal framework, local government units, specifically municipal wards, are legally tasked with managing local water sources, maintaining public infrastructure, and distributing resources equitably. However, a lack of technical capacity, limited fiscal autonomy, and the absence of clear climate adaptation guidelines have left a massive gap between policy intent and ground reality (MoFE, 2019).
Without robust, institutionalized mechanisms to mediate these climate-induced resource strains, the social cohesion of these agrarian neighborhoods is being put to a strenuous test. When the water flow stops, community-managed irrigation canals (kulos) quickly transform into flashpoints for neighborhood disputes. Upstream farmers are increasingly pitted against downstream users, and traditional resource-sharing agreements are buckling under environmental stress.
When Boundaries Blur: Human-Wildlife Friction at the Buffer Zone
Photo by: Samikchhya Gurung
Perhaps the most complex and volatile dimension of this resource strain is the escalating tension unfolding along the borders of Nepal’s protected areas. The recent findings highlight that 12.5% of local households have experienced a measurable rise in human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) (Gurung, 2024). While human-related activities such as population growth, settlement expansion, and buffer-zone encroachment are important drivers of the increase in HWC’s, water scarcity also contributes to the increase in human-wildlife conflicts (Baduwal & Paudel, 2024). Data from Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (2025, shows the mean water flow of the Karnali River starts to decrease in September/October, reaching its lowest during February (WECS, 2025). This coincides with the increase in HWCs in February, October, and November (Paudel et al., 2024). As natural water holes, wetlands, and small streams inside Bardiya National Park and its adjacent buffer zones dry up during the grueling lean season, wildlife is forced to migrate outward into indigenous settlements and agricultural fields in desperate search of hydration and forage. While factors other than water availability also influence increases and decreases in wildlife conflict, the graph below shows that during the drier season of February, when the mean water flow of Karnali is at its lowest, HWC increased to a maximum of 11 incidents. Furthermore, as the water flow starts to decline, especially in the months of September and October, with almost a 50% decline (gtom 2735 m3/s to 1164 m3/s and 1164 m3/s to 637 m3/s, respectively) in both months, we can see an increase in conflicts as well. While this does not completely negate the influence of other drivers, it does indicate the influence of the decrease in water on human-wildlife conflicts.
Month | HWC between 2019 and 2024 in Bardiya (no of incidents) | Mean Water Flow of Karnali River measured at Chisapani (m3/s) |
January | 6 | 345 |
February | 11 | 301 |
March | 7 | 303 |
April | 1 | 431 |
May | 5 | 757 |
June | 5 | 1284 |
July | 4 | 3214 |
August | 9 | 4246 |
September | 6 | 2735 |
October | 10 | 1164 |
November | 9 | 637 |
December | 3 | 444 |
Table 1: Human-wildlife conflict incidences in Bardiya and mean water flow of the Karnali River.
(Baduwal & Paudel, 2024) (WECS, 2025)
This ecological crossover creates an intense, high stakes natural resource conflict. Crop raiding by elephants and rhinos, property damage, and direct safety threats disproportionately impact marginalized Tharu and Dalit communities living on the geographic fringes of the park (Prins et al., 2021). This dynamic exposes a critical systemic friction between national environmental conservation priorities and local community survival. Local federal governance mechanisms currently lack the proper equipment or financial capabilities to compensate for the tension.
Furthermore, this climate-induced scarcity places a compounding burden on marginalized women because they bear the main responsibility for household water security and livestock fodder collection; they are forced to navigate these increasingly insecure, wildlife-prone landscapes, exposing themselves to heightened physical vulnerabilities.
Summary of Climate Drivers and Local Impacts
These climate drivers have a huge impact on safety, livelihoods, and housing. As these communities rely heavily on agriculture-based incomes, erratic rainfall and droughts cause irrigation crises and disputes over diminishing resources. Similarly, we also see increased conflict between residents and wildlife. The largest impact seems to be on the displacement of residents, with around 88% reporting that they are displaced during flood season.
Climate-Induced Driver | Localized Social/Governance Impact |
Dried-up communal water bodies & erratic rainfall patterns | 37% face acute irrigation crisis; intense |
Lean-season drying of internal national park water holes | 12.5% rise in human-wildlife conflicts; high-risk crop raiding for buffer zone communities. |
Unreliable municipal infrastructure during monsoon shocks | 88% temporary flood displacement; heavy |
Local Knowledge vs. Policy Gaps: The Resilience of Traditional Governance
Despite the formal institutional presence of newly constructed municipal offices and ward headquarters, communities heavily rely on traditional, indigenous governance structures to survive environmental shocks. “The Badh Ghar” system, a traditional democratic leadership framework deeply embedded within the indigenous Tharu community, remains the primary mechanism for mediating local water disputes, maintaining community infrastructure, and organizing immediate, mutual-aid resource sharing (Müller-Böker, 1999).
However, these customary institutions face critical internal and structural constraints when forced to shoulder the climate burden in an institutional vacuum. Grounded in traditional socio-political hierarchies, Badh Ghar assemblies are historically led by male household heads (Ghar Muli); thus, when climate shocks damage irrigation canals (kulos), customary labor calls (jhara) demand physical repair work from each household, forcing women in single-headed or migration-affected households to perform heavy physical labor while remaining systematically excluded from the evening assemblies where water rotation schedules and maintenance fees are actually decided. Furthermore, while the Badh Ghar system excels at rapid community labor mobilization, informal governance bodies hit severe fiscal and technical capital ceilings, lacking the statutory authority, municipal budget, and engineering capacity required to implement long-term, climate-resilient water infrastructure such as purchasing solar-powered deep tube well systems, when customary community funds (Kothar) run dry during extreme droughts.
Ultimately, far from being ineffective, local customary practices demonstrate vital community agency and survival resilience; however, expecting informal networks to manage expanding environmental crises without municipal financial backing, technical assistance, or inclusive policy reform leaves frontline households absorbing the high costs of systemic governance failures.
While lean-season water scarcity fuels localized conflict over agricultural irrigation, monsoon shocks present an opposing, catastrophic threat to household stability. Primary survey data reveals the extreme scale of this exposure: 88% of surveyed households in Geruwa and Madhuwan report experiencing temporary displacement during severe monsoon events due to flash flooding and riverbank erosion along Karnali tributaries because municipal infrastructure regularly fails to provide adequate emergency shelters or early warning coverage, displaced families are left almost entirely dependent on informal safety nets, mutual assistance, and kinship networks for immediate survival (Gurung, 2024).
When formal municipal infrastructure fails to provide secure, long-term elevated shelters or equitable lean-season water distribution, it severely strains the local social fabric. This governance vacuum forces an overreliance on informal, localized This governance vacuum creates a heavy, asymmetrical reliance on informal coping mechanisms. Far from being inherently inadequate, these localized strategies reflect vital community agency and survival knowledge. However, expecting informal networks to shoulder long-term structural adaptation without state investment, legislative authority, or technical assistance is both unsustainable and inequitable. It leaves frontline households absorbing the costs of systemic governance failures while missing a crucial opportunity for meaningful state-citizen co-governance.
Conclusion: A Call for Climate-Transformative Peace Building
Resolving localized resource conflicts in federal Nepal requires moving beyond top-down legal mandates or reactive emergency relief. To achieve truly inclusive water governance in the Lower Karnali, local federal units must actively bridge formal bureaucratic policy with indigenous management frameworks. In practice, this means formally seating Badh Ghar leaders on Ward Water Users Associations, devolving national park buffer-zone revenue directly to municipal offices for rapid crop-damage compensation, and guaranteeing indigenous Tharu and Dalit women decisive voting power in local infrastructure planning. Practical community resilience and lasting environmental peace can only be secured when frontline communities have a direct, legally backed seat at the water governance table.
References
Dixit, A., Khadka S., & Bhusal, S. (2019). Climate-induced hazards, water security, and localized vulnerabilities in the river basins of Western Nepal. Nepal Water Conservation Foundation.
Gurung, S. (2024). Changing Climate-Induced Hazards and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities in Lower Karnali Watershed Region, Bardiya (Unpublished master’s thesis). Central Department of Sociology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Ministry of Forests and Environment (MoFE). (2019). National Climate Change Policy framework for localized adaptation and disaster risk management. Government of Nepal.
Müller-Böker, U. (1999). The Tharus of Chitwan: Identification of a people and their environment. Franz Steiner Verlag.
Paudel, U., KC, R., Kadariya, R., Karki, A., Shrestha, B., Shah, S., Subedi, N. and Thapa, S. (2024), Human–Wildlife Conflict in Bardia—Banke Complex: Patterns of Human Fatalities and Caused by https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70395
Prins, H. H. T., Liefting, Y., & de Jong, J. F. (2021). Marginal farmers carry the burden of damage caused by Asian elephants Elephas maximus in Bardiya National Park, Nepal. Oryx, 56(1), 73–81. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0030605319001431
WECS, 2025. Flood, Drought and Climate Change Analysis of Nepal. Government of Nepal,
Water and Energy Commission Secretariat, Kathmandu, Nepal
Author Introduction
Samikchhya Gurung is an environmental sociologist, researcher, and public commentator. Her work examines the intersections of climate precarity, local governance, and social and climate justice in Nepal.This blog is a part of her Masters' research on climate-induced hazards and Indigenous Resilience in the Lower Karnali Watershed with the research grant managed by Central Department of Geology, TU under the project entitled ‘Climate Resilient and Socially Inclusive Region Water Management in the Lower Karnali Watershed Region (CLASSIK). The CLASSIK project has been funded under IHE Delft Water and Development Partnership Programme, financed by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs.