Author: Rajendra Sharma
Background
There has been a global discourse on ‘Just Transition’ after the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015, with a global objective of limiting the rise in temperature and to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Also, it takes accounts of shifting the workforce by creating decent work and quality jobs in line with nationally defined development priorities. Given the limited structural capacities and preparedness of many countries to implement the adjustments required for climate resilience, migration has emerged as both an adaptive response and a component of resilience in the broader context.
In global scenario, climate change induced impact in data suggest a daunting scenario, placing mounting pressure on human lives, livelihoods and environmental, social and economic infrastructure. A report published by ILO in 2019 brings the sector wise vulnerability, agriculture sector at the top, projected to account for 60 per cent of global working hours lost due to heat stress by the year 2030. However, the impact of climate change will be unequally distributed around the globe, in southern Asia and western Africa, where around 43 million jobs are expected to be lost by 2030.
In our context, Nepal is yet to create decent jobs and a more climate-resilient economy offering a crucial opportunity supporting sustainable enterprises and enhancing social projection. For instances, as per Nepal’s climate action plan under Paris Agreement-Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), ‘Just Transition’ is a cross-cutting principle, which means this doesn’t end with just greenhouse gas reduction, rather aims for more green jobs, skill development and building resilient economy, ultimately accommodating a structural change.
In this context, undoubtedly, Just Transition is the potential policy adjustment when it comes to Nepal’s relatively potential economic sectors like agriculture, forest, hydro etc. facilitating the transition to the green economy. No doubt, such adjustment will promote green economy, offer livelihood options and de-escalate outward migration of Nepalis for minimal opportunities.
Nepal is not exceptional, the recent study on Degree of Urbanization, cities are transforming into heat island. This puts significant stress on the urban livelihood, too. Given Nepal’s sensitivity to climate shocks, it is estimated that it will lose 2.2 per cent of its annual GDP by 2050. Particularly, the people in the remote geographical region and vulnerable to disaster will suffer the most significant economic losses, including 30 per cent indigenous people of Himalayan region, 62.2 per cent informal workers, 2.2 per cent PWDs, 47.7 per cent small land-holding farmers, 51.13 per cent women and children, among others. Undeniably, it is the people (rural farmers, marginalised groups such as women, Dalits, people with disabilities (PWDs) and children) at the bottom, who have to pay for the loss. Because, they often face very limited options: they must either endure worsening conditions or make the difficult choice to migrate to other destinations. Consequently, migration functions as a means of coping with climate change vulnerabilities in some contexts, while simultaneously exposing migrants to new and significant impacts in others.
Climate Change and Migration Nexus
Internal Migration
Among the drivers of migration, climate change is the one, arguably, portraying migration as an adaptive strategy to the combined impacts of extreme climatic events and environmental conflicts. In terms of internal migration, people tend to avoid the climate shocks by shifting to the nearby adjustable (sometimes it can be resourceful) places, again inviting environmental conflict and competition. The government of Nepal, recognises the climate change induced migration but fails to facilitate migrants with relocation, alternative livelihood schemes, leaving them vulnerable to the potential climate shocks. Hence, the government priorities as spelled out in recent NDC, such as green jobs and green skills for communities at-risk and migrant workers, should be closely aligned with the livelihood needs of the vulnerable groups.
Out-Migration
The primary destination of Nepalis migrant workers—till the date are the (Gulf Cooperation Council-GCC) and the Malaysia—characterised by extreme heat and chronic occupational risks, often resulting in major health issues like kidney failure, heart issues and heat exhaustion during intense summer conditions. It is clear that the Nepalis displaced by the climate shocks are more vulnerable to make a migration decision, often as a migrant worker. Similarly, some claims it as an income diversification strategy under climate change. It is obvious that the vulnerability inclines as the number of Nepali migrants grew, nearly four-fold growth in the last three decades, from 1990 to 2020, with women making 43.8 per cent of that number. This makes a climate-induced migration a gendered phenomenon as well.
Financial Dependency
Nepali economy remains heavily dependent on remittance and which has had a notably positive impact on the socio-economic condition of the recipient household, is commendable. The Nepal Rastra Bank’s working paper, also acknowledge remittances roles in reducing poverty and economic vulnerability, ultimately escalating economic development.
But, a huge pie of the remittance is primarily used to repay the migration loan and daily household needs. This situation fosters dependency of household members on migrant workers, as migration remains the main livelihood strategy in the absence of reliable income sources and alternative employment opportunities. At the same time, the growing financial burdens on migrants, illustrate a layered vulnerability they experienced both at homes and abroad. Showcasing a layered vulnerability of debt and financial strain at home and economic as well as occupational risk, abroad.
Just Transition
Just Transition is recognised as part of the broader effort to implement climate actions in a way that promotes social justice and sustainable development, emphasising the importance of protecting vulnerable groups during climate mitigation and adaptation processes. Nepal’s commitment through NDCs clearly stipulates that no vulnerable communities are left behind in the transition to a low-carbon economy. However, these policy frameworks often overlook the climate induced migration and shifting rural demographics, and widening urban-rural disparities. This level of displacement can lead to loss of livelihoods and increased vulnerability, especially for marginalised groups in Hilly and Himalayan regions.
ILO further elaborates, Just Transition as a proactive approach to minimise adverse impacts on workers and communities through policies that promote social dialogue, skills development, social protection and job creation in sustainable industries. In this backdrop Nepal has a tremendous potential to shift to a green economy, via natural resource base such as forest and agriculture. But it also true that sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and service oriented activities such as hospitality and industries have a high share of informality. Hence it poses a striking challenge on balancing the informal economy in alignment with the green economy and greener jobs in Nepal as of now.
Conclusion
Nepal faces significant climate risks, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), river floods, and other water-related hazards, often intensified by heavy monsoon rainfall combined with snowmelt. The intersection of climate vulnerability, economic dependence on migration and move towards a green economy, Nepal finds itself at the critical juncture. Often, national economic discourses have sidelined the environmental and social considerations. As climate change induced impacts continue to disrupt Nepalis livelihood especially in agriculture-dependent and disaster prone regions, migration is emerging as a phenomenon of both coping strategy and survival necessity. However, such adaptation is likely to add climate burden onto migrants, many of whom are vulnerable to exploitative, unsafe and heat-stressed working conditions abroad. At the same time, these dynamics reveal a dual vulnerability: while families at home rely on remittances to withstand climate and economic shocks, migrants themselves are exposed to systemic risks with limited protections. In this context, Just Transition, in Nepali migration regime, must address both local adaptation needs and transnational labour justice.
Author Introduction
Rajendra Sharma is a scholar of Conflict and Peace Studies and a researcher at Social Science Baha. He holds MA in Conflict, Peace and Development Studies from Tribhuvan University and was a recipient of the NORHED Fellowship (2016–18), through which he completed third- semester coursework at the University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka. His research interests focus on conflict, migration, climate change and environmental peace-building.
The views and opinions expressed in the piece above are solely those of the original author(s) and contributor(s). They do not necessarily represent the views of Governance Monitoring Centre Nepal and/or Centre for Social Change.